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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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population growth" but rapid population growth versus a gradual slowing of the rate of growth. The rate of growth is already slowing in a number of the developing countries, and even when one allows for the likelihood of continuing declines in mortality, there is a real possibility in many other countries that the growth rate will begin to decline during the next decade as a result of reductions in the birth rate outpacing reductions in the death rate. Table 11 shows that, in the projections analyzed in the previous section, the savings in enrollments attributable to a rapid decline in fertility are 2.9 percent after 10 years, 30.2 percent after 20 years, and more than 50 percent after 30 years. It is particularly noteworthy that the percentage saving in enrollments caused by declining fertility is precisely the same whether ER's are held constant or are raised more or less rapidly. Viewed in this way, then, a rapid rise in ER's does not "wash out" even slightly the enrollment advantage of reduced fertility. The relative saving in enrollments caused in any given time period by the decline in fertility can be altered only by altering the speed of that decline. The absolute saving in enrollments is, of course, larger the more rapidly enrollment rates are raised.
Pakistan Case Study
To test further the potential contribution of a reduction in the rate of population growth to the attainment of educational goals, a series of country case studies is being conducted at the Population Council. In these studies the cost of attaining alternative educational targets is projected for a variety of assumptions about future population trends. Studies have so far been completed for the Republic of Korea, Pakistan, and Ghana (37, 38, 39).* In the following discussion, the findings of the Pakistan study will be briefly summarized.
Two educational targets are contrasted in this study of Pakistan: maintaining the status quo in terms of the coverage and quality of the education system and effecting certain improvements in its coverage and quality. The method was simply to apply to three population projections two different assumptions about enrollment rates at the school-going ages: one that enrollment rates would remain constant at their base-year level, the other that they would increase rapidly, though less rapidly than they would if the ambitious goals set out in Pakistan's Third Five-Year Plan were attained. Two different assumptions about pupil/teacher ratios were applied to the resulting enrollment projections: one that they would remain at their base-year level, the other that the ratio would be lowered, implying an improvement in the
*Sudies for Ceylon and Thailand are in process. An important research project on the impact of population change on educational development is currently being undertaken by the International Institute for Educational Planning, and results should be available at the end of 1970.s